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Solomon Pavliashvili Zurab GarakanidzeGivi Chubinidze
CONCEPTUALIZATION AND USE OF ECONOMIC RISKS ANALYSES

Summary 

Before the forthcoming presidential elections, from politicians often heard of the calls for the optimization of the government, the need for a "small government". The modern economic security theory provides the ability successful using the "risk-driven" model of state management in Georgia. It is about analyzing socio-economic risks, which are before the country and management its economy by politically neutral system. Simply put, the essence of the model based on the risks of management is a periodic comparison of "marginal" and "actual" figures based on expert (technocratic) surveys.

That analysis of economic security indicators objectively excludes any politically motivation or subjective decision. Such an analysis is based on the existing national security concept of macroeconomic indicators and comparable to the marginal indicators established by expert surveys and not just how much of the universal healthcare or other subsistence programs subsidized by the left-center-right postulates.

A list of the above-mentioned "marginal" indicators of economic security should be established in the national security renewed concept. For example, many of the country's security concepts include general macroeconomic indicators such as GDP per capita, unemployment level, property differentiation of the population, indicators of perception of human constitutional rights, etc. Considering the specifics of Georgia, it is also desirable to identify potentially dangerous and negative trends that may be subject to macroeconomic stability in the coming years. For instance, when the dependence rate of Georgia's energy imports is 70% -75%, it should be set to "marginal value" of this figure, for example, to the EU average - up to 54%; Or when consumption of electricity per person is 1.92-2.28 MW / h, we need to reach the "marginal value" of consumption, up to the average level of the EU - 4.4 MW / h, and so on.

We believe that the Parliament should monitor the Government by adopting a national security conception and approve the regulation on "State monitoring for National Security". In this paper these indicators of economic security should be listed on which the government should monitor their "marginal values" which should be approved by the government by the recommendations of the Ministry of Economic Development. These "values" will be based on the survey and examinations of the experts.

Based on the experience of developed countries, the Government will monitor the 55-60 criteria and indicator of economic security that will be presented within the framework of the renewed National Security Concept.

Thus, in the conditions of the crisis in the South Caucasus region and in the immediate vicinity of the crisis, the task of establishing a neutral government team to monitor the economic risks can take into account the interests of stable development of the country. This is due to the fact that in the difficult geopolitical situation in our region, currently Georgia does not have any leverage of economic risks, challenges, threats management. This is due according to the legislation adopted since 2010, National Security Council, the intergovernmental coordination body, stoped working on economic threats. In addition, it should be taken into account, that certain experience of risk management had the then National Security Council of Georgia, before the changing of legislation.